Please see the following summary by Accelerate Strategies.
It’s been a newsy few days on the trade front. Here is a rundown of what has happened since Friday afternoon:
- Trade Agreement with EU: The President announced a trade agreement with the European Union that would have the EU eliminate duties on U.S. exports while imports of EU products into the U.S. would be subject to a 15% tariff. Details of the agreement, which the Administration says also includes purchase agreements and other concessions made by the EU, have not been made public. The agreement with the EU follows agreements with the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and Japan, although negotiations with each of these countries is ongoing.
- China Negotiations: The U.S. and China are holding high-level trade talks in Stockholm this week.
- Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) downplayed the possibility of a major breakthrough in talks with China and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the main goal of this week’s talks is to extend the current deadline beyond August 12, which is when tariffs on Chinese imports are currently scheduled to ramp up.
- Tariffs currently being imposed on Chinese imports include the 10% across the board IEEPA tariff and the 20% fentanyl tariffs + all other tariffs assessed on Chinese imports, including Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, and Most Favored Nation tariffs. Tariffs on Chinese imports had been as high as 145% (IEEPA tariffs + fentanyl tariffs), not counting Section 301, Section 232 and MFN.
- Tariff Ramp-Up Day is Upon Us: Friday is August 1, which is the date tariffs are expected to increase. Below is a chart that summarizes the new tariff rates we expect to go into effect, based on the rates initially set on April 2, the rates that were announced in letters President Trump sent to select countries, or the rates that were negotiated between the Trump Administration and select countries.
- Possible Tariff Rebate Checks: On Friday afternoon, President Trump suggested the White House could use tariff revenue to send rebate checks to individuals. He made the comments to the press in response to a question from a reporter.
- Recall the President suggested several weeks ago that Americans might receive a rebate check using money that was saved by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), but that plan never materialized.
- Tariffs on Russian Trading Partners: On Monday, President Trump reiterated his threat to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on countries that trade with Russia, saying the new deadline for countries to end their trade relationship with Russia would be in “10 to 12 days”, instead of 50 days as he announced earlier this month. Legislation is pending in the House and Senate that would impose a 500% tariff on any nation that purchases Russian oil, uranium or natural gas; however, Congressional leaders have said they will hold off on advancing the bill to give President Trump room to negotiate.
- Section 232 Tariffs: A senior U.S. official told reporters over the weekend that sector-based tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could be imposed within three weeks. Seven other 232 investigations remain ongoing, and additional 232 investigations are expected in the coming weeks.
- IEEPA Litigation: Oral arguments are scheduled for this Thursday before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on V.O.S. Selections v. Trump. The two sides will argue the legality of Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs by declaring trade deficits a national emergency. We fully expect this to go to the Supreme Court, regardless of what happens in the U.S. Court of Appeals.
- Section 321 / De Minimis: The U.S. Court of International Trade rejected a request to reinstate the de minimis exception for imports from China. The ban on the use of de minimis for packages from China and Hong Kong took effect on May 2. The judges signaled the court could not step into this dispute until the case brought by V.O.S. Selections is decided.
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